Monday, November 19, 2007
Big crises on credit market is threating economy; which became so dependant from loans as are junkies addicted to heroine.
Not only cynics are the ones that claims that banks again and again are finding the way to lose money.
And for real, for last few weeks bad news after bad news. This sad season was opened by the biggest New York's Citigroup, biggest financial institution in the world, Swiss USB, Bank of America , German Deutsche Bank, American Wachovia, Italian Unicredito and so on. Whit looses from same root they got company on credit markets from giants of Wall Street: Merrill Lynch, the biggest global trader with securities, Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley. What matters with that list is only one of the problems in great looses that almost sinked
mostly all contemporary states, because only Citigroup and Merrill Lynch
together lost more than 18 milliards of $. Actually we should say that for now they lost , because by opinion of analytics completely clear, that the looses because of different exotic securities will climb on also in future. Those securities papers no one wants to buy,and in same time everyone wants to sell them. The same size of problem is also that also the names as UBS, the biggest Swiss bank, which looses are around 3.5 milliard of dollar. It is a bank that was till now known as on of best valuer of risk on credit markets. And if because of bad value of risk also of bank with such reputation are drowning in loses it is hard to predict, what all will economy have to face and in continuing of crisis on credit markets securities of rich countries.
Problem is that three months after beginning of crises it is not possible to be exact on where all will be the crisis and who all will become victims "financial weapon for mass destruction" as those papers were called by second richest man in states. The fact is that big banks produced those papers, and namely so that they would lover the risk, that is escorting that kind of crediting. Whit sells of securities, they base on paying off of home loans and other loans, we tought that the risk will remove from back of banks, that will spread over market and will become buyer duty. Limited loses clearly shows that risk around fall of in matter of American family homes loans fall anyway on banks, from where in most of times they also come from. All hard work , to find out where are also hiding such and different risks, are now similar to shape of cube, that street minglers are offering you to find out under which is hiding the rock, marble or something else.
Big question, that is staying without answer for now is what consequences will have continue of this crisis for real economy.
State finance functionaries, mostly those that have in mind control over financial markets, are saying that they evacuated the crisis and that there is no danger to threat the real economy, but fact is that we have to understand those statements with loots of mental ratio. Evan if those statements are coming from mouth of most respectable places or respectable individuals. There must be something wrong, and we also check that, because also one of most reputable and legend Allan Greenspan, ex executive of Central Bank in similar predictions was right one of six times. And they are showing his successor Ben Bernanke as flower maker , because he is showing the critical situation in American homes market or on credit markets in pink colors, meanwhile the truth is completely different. All this and other functionaries are not being payed to awake additional fear, but to in any situation lower the panics. That is why we need to look for reliable values somewhere else.
And the data about parts if finance sectors in economy are predicting, that strikes , that those institutions are suffering from, wont be able to live none consequences on real economy. Banks and other financial institutions have almost one third in total profit, that is created by American corporations. And that is much more than in 1950 (8% only) and in 1990(20%). All consequences off course isn't possible to predict , but fact is that the economy newer in history was not so incurred debts (so depend on loans) and that in whole home sector newer been so occupied with incurred debts as now. Ruin of gain in finance sector can not just pass by, like nothing newer happened.
Optimists are warning on state statistics which showed, that appearing crisis , that started in August did not affect economy in whole. Statistics says that in American economy in third three month period in 2007 had fastened the moving and it got growth, that comes (calculated for whole year) 3.9%. It is rarely that this kind of information got such amount of anger and distrust, as it happened at this time.
For rel it would be extremely unusual if all critics would be wrong. Now it is no more doubt that all kind of basics are more expensive. Oil price is just little under historical record, that it got in times of Iranian revolution in year of 1979, that reached a price for barrel $45 transfered to now days value of dollar $101 for barrel. That is fact for almost all kind of goods as raw materials, food and metals. It seems like ex front man of BHP Billiton was right that moving of those prices are result of now days factors, which could easily compared to industrial revolution or economical renewal after second world war. Today factor are China, that has in this point of view and in this moment part like in those times had been played by two mentioned events. Also on this field exists something that shows as rule: ex head leader of that company had analyzed moving since 1812 till now days and found out- as in his times Russian economist Nicolay Kondratiev- that the prices of basic products will start to grow and continue growing for next 25 years.
From all this we can conclude with what kind of problems are now days leaders of important money printing offices confronting, especially Americans. Big crises on credit market is threating economy; which became so dependent from loans as are junkies addicted to heroine.
That is why we would like to make it easier for patient with additional softening of monetary politics. Going higher with oil prices and other important goods is threating that in case of softening financial politics will make mad the inflation.
Problems become additionaly complicated with fall of price of special metal. This new appearance dissident is in this case copper. Dissident is very dangerous , and there are reasons for that, for that it must be reason that this metal on stock market is called Economy Doctor. Copper got this title because of its ability to predict future of economy. And if copper is predicting overturn of economy down, oil and other good predict higher inflation, that makes double trouble that in last seventies got glamorous name stagflation.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Also milliards are frequently falling of famous list of 400 most rich Americans, which is every year prepared by leading economy magazine Forbes. If you wanted to be on that list in year 2007 you have to be heavy at least 1.3 milliard dollars, which is 300 millions dollars more than last year 2006.
Some people see on this list, and they are almost right, one of the marks, that in our era exists , as it was possible to claim for last decades in 19 century, very comfortable ground to grow numbers of extremely rich individuals. As it is mark in meaning that is opposite with production in economy, the meaning of dealing with finance is much more important now, we have 45 newcomers which are now on list, and they all come from tops of finance founds.
the valuers have off course the total right to look and overcome to that kind and similar conclusions, but what is interesting, that till now nobody asked, what is going on with dollar in which all that wealth is presented.
Evan if that question is not of such importance for that subject, as list of Forbes magazine , it is even more interesting that many of those important questions are discussed , as the dollar would be money, which has constantly equal value. In September of 2007, for example, the economy magazine Barrons published prediction of one of most prestigious strategist in business with oil, who claims that the price of "black gold" will from $80 for barrel fall to half the price, to around $45. Mike Rothman, former oil strategist of Merrill Lynch bank, who is now owner of investigation company, he is famous on Wall Street not only because of such opposite views , but also on facts that most of the times he was right, when his predictions were in opposite of public opinion. Now he claims that the position with oil pretty much the same as back in seventies. From 1999 the price of oil grow on same steps , which were walked through in mentioned decade, so the price from record $45 in first years of eighties dropped, so in middle of eighties the price was less than half of the mentioned record price.
The prediction is for most of us pretty common and welcome, but in prediction is missing the second important part of the story: What was in those times going on with money that is product of oil? After, beginning of seventies, the last connection between gold and dollar failed
the dollar in full power went to sail, which most of us considered more like sinking or diving. Obviously oil masters didn't became greedy in moment, as sometimes their behavior was explained and subscribed. What happened, it simply wasn't productive to give oil in same amount of money of which value was sliding down. So what happened, there was an offensive of plantar resources against collapse of money.
That is how suddenly became clear, how the trend of falling dollar and nominal more expensive oil ended. It was the big move in American monetary politics in passage from seventies to eighties, it was blackmailed with what seemed as final brake down of American money, when the price of gold in year 1979 raised on price of $850 per ounce. Which was also the mark of end of that moving. But not immediately, because the gain on dollar investments were kicking heads of in their positive turn (the state of us was paying 16% of interest to creditors
), so the global capital started to turn in dollar financial possession and was moving from material and other kind of owning. Dollar in those times became much stronger in relation to other kind of money (in spring of 1985 it was possible with one dollar to buy 3.5 german mark), consequence was that price of goods in dollar was falling and also price of oil. Not very rich countries, which were also so called socialist countries, payed enormous price for that turnabout. As Dutch economist Angus Maddison claims, was that price much bigger than rich countries were paying in big depression of thirties.
To discus about close history it makes sense only if there are any chances for such optimistic predictions, as it is point of earlier mentioned of oil fortuneteller, meaning that the price of that fuel will son fall on half.
It is hard to imagine bigger differences, as were in times of turnabout in dollar politics started sos action of american money, which was also the combat with rising price of oil, and now our time, present we took care with turnaround of monetary politics to grow of Stock exchange and killing of dollar.Probably nobody doubts that dollar had to pay for newest conclusion of american central bank, that they will lower rates for another half pro cent, so that will make investments in american dollar even more unattractive. In opposition with past times today there is no marks, that anyone would wish to value dollar would get stronger with with more income on financial owning in this currency. Also american press is writing a lot about it, that dollar had to pay the price of that step, even it would be much more honest and clear to say that that price was payed by out america creditors. Meanwhile there was no hearing from Washington with their famous words, which were repeated in any actions with american money, stong dollar is american national pride and interest.
Dollar looks like in free fall right now no one on globe cane not take as easy thing to make decision what to do now.
probably interesting reading, but i haven't tried yet black gold